Place Your Bets

If I were a gambling man, I would place a good sum on Janet Napolitano remaining the governor of the state of Arizona another two years. Its not that I believe she will do so out of a strong sense of duty, or wishes to fight an energized state legislature tooth and nail, but that the position she desires will not be offered.

First lets look at the supposed leaked flowchart from the Obama transition team. This is either entirely made up by someone unrelated to the campaign, or it is a plant. I know darn well that such a document has not made it into the public domain without the Obama campaign's blessing if it were real. And, frankly, it just looks hokey, by both design and content. Is Colin Powell really on the shortlist for three different cabinet positions? Just about all of the names are "famous" Democrats that most people probably have heard of. Additionally, as someone else noticed, it is bereft of Women outside of Napolitano, and Penny Pritzker. Obama may make mistakes, but I guarantee he won't make that one, as his "chauvinist" reputation is something he doesn't wish to feed. Additionally, if this chart were legit, Rahm Emmanuel would probably have a large part in its creation. I don't believe he would need a reminder that he already took the job. You can dismiss this flowchart.

That being said, you will see the DOJ headed by a pro, somebody with all the connections, experience, and ability to not embarrass the President. Bush and Clinton learned this lesson for Obama. Janet may be this person, but who knows? She has never really dealt with a hostile press or been at the forefront when the "buck stopped here." The attorney general has to take tough, unpopular stands. I'm not convinced that is in Napolitano's DNA. She has known success only in the political philanthropist role. Giving her this position would be a tremendous risk for Obama. His choice of Emmanuel has shown he wishes to balance out his greenness with experience.

Would she take a role in Homeland Security? Perhaps, but again, I suspect that it will either go to a pro or a Republican. A terrorist attack would be a tremendous setback for Obama's presidency. Having a Republican or a near unanimous pick in the role would help deflect criticism should the unthinkable happen. There would be too much danger of a "Heckuva job, Janet" stain should sister 51 foot ladder be on watch.

I do suspect that the job of Secratary of Education will be offered and probably refused, even though both parties will have agreed beforehand on the Kabuki.

The spot on the transistion team is Janet's plum. I hope she enjoys it, because the shine on the apple back home is wearing thin.